Surplus Chemicals & the AI Cold War: Navigating China’s Export Controls in 2025-2026

Surplus Chemicals & the AI Cold War: Navigating China’s Export Controls in 2025-2026

As China intensifies export controls on critical minerals and key industrial chemicals – especially those tied to semiconductor manufacturing and AI infrastructure – companies that rely on high-purity inputs must rethink their sourcing strategies. At Surplus International, we help clients secure critical inputs before the market panics, by tapping into unused industrial overstock, expired R&D materials, and manufacturer surplus.

Chemicals shortage due to China USA cold war over AI

In a world reshaped by AI-driven competition and strategic decoupling,
chemical procurement is no longer just about price and volume. It’s about access.

As China intensifies export controls on critical minerals and key industrial chemicals – especially those tied to semiconductor manufacturing and AI infrastructure – companies that rely on high-purity inputs must rethink their sourcing strategies.
At Surplus International, we’ve built our business around a few ideas, one main idea is:
“What’s in surplus today could be in shortage tomorrow.”
In 2025, this principle has never been more relevant.

🔧 From Fertilizer to Photonics: Key Chemicals Facing Export Controls

While many headlines focus on rare earths and lithium, a growing number of non-mineral chemicals are quietly becoming strategic flashpoints – particularly those used in semiconductor cleaning, etching, and assembly.

Below is a breakdown of chemicals that:

  • Are under active or partial Chinese export controls
  • Have clear surplus potential
  • Play a critical role in AI-related technologies

🧪 High-Risk, High-Need: The Top Surplus Chemicals in 2025

Chemical

China Status

Surplus Availability

AI/Chip Use

Urea

Export quotas, price controls (2024-2025)

✅ Very high

Cooling systems, LFP batteries

Hydrogen Peroxide (H₂O₂)

Regulated for purity and dual use

✅ High

Cleanroom sterilization, wafer cleaning

Isopropyl Alcohol (IPA)

High internal demand, restricted exports in 2023

✅ High

Precision cleaning in chip fabs

Acetic Acid

No formal ban, but national stockpiling in 2024

✅ High

Substrate production, solvents

Dimethylformamide (DMF)

Safety licensing, dual-use watchlist

✅ High

Photoresists, electronic coatings

Triethanolamine (TEA)

Security sensitive (riot control agents)

✅ Medium

Anti-static coatings, PCBs

Tungsten Trioxide (WO₃)

Licensing as of Feb 2025

✅ Medium

Chip manufacturing equipment, X-ray shielding

Molybdenum Trioxide (MoO₃)

Licensing as of Feb 2025

✅ Medium

Conductive films, thermoelectric devices

Indium Compounds (ITO)

Under export review

✅ Medium

Display tech, edge AI hardware

💥 AI, Semiconductors & China: The Geopolitical Context

The global race for AI supremacy has placed semiconductors at the center of geopolitical tension. The U.S. has restricted China’s access to advanced chips; China, in return, is weaponizing its control over the chemicals needed to manufacture them.

Many of these chemicals – including IPA, H₂O₂, DMF, and TEA – are used in:

  • EUV and DUV lithography
  • Wafer etching and resist processing
  • Cleanroom sterilization
  • Packaging and inspection phases

These aren’t exotic or rare. But they’re indispensable – and when one country controls a disproportionate share of production or purification, that’s a risk.

📌 China currently produces ~80% of the world’s high-purity IPA and dominates low-cost H₂O₂ supply chains.

Add regulatory opacity, licensing delays, and stockpiling for internal needs – and you get the perfect storm for supply instability.

🔮 Our Forecast: What Chemicals Will Be Next?

Based on trade patterns, state media signals, and industry chatter, we expect additional restrictions in late 2025 / early 2026 on:

Likely-to-be-Restricted

Reason

N-Methyl-2-pyrrolidone (NMP)

Used in battery and photoresist production; high export volume

Hexafluoroacetone (HFA)

Crucial for fluorinated resins and chip lithography

Sulfur Hexafluoride (SF₆)

Used in plasma etching and circuit breaker gas

Anhydrous Hydrofluoric Acid (AHF)

Core input in semiconductor-grade fluorochemicals

TMAH (Tetramethylammonium Hydroxide)

Developer in advanced node chip production

Dipropylene Glycol Monomethyl Ether (DPM)

Used in cleaning and photoresist stripping

These chemicals are not rare – but they are vital to advanced chipmaking. And China either produces or purifies much of the global supply.

🚨 The Surplus Solution

We help clients sidestep chokepoints by tapping into:

  • Unused industrial overstock
  • Expired or decommissioned R&D materials
  • Manufacturer surplus due to cancelled contracts or spec mismatches

Each lot we broker comes with:

  • ✅ CoA & MSDS
  • ✅ Verified storage and shelf life
  • ✅ Industry-specific compatibility checks (semiconductors, aerospace, pharma, etc.)

🧩 Real Examples from Surplus International

  • Placed high-purity IPA from a shutdown COVID-era disinfectant plant into chip cleaning applications.
  • Reallocated MoO₃ from aerospace research to EV cathode producers.
  • Supplied surplus ITO targets to a display fab in Poland after delays in Japanese imports.
  • Delivered pharmaceutical-grade H₂O₂ to a packaging facility after Korean suppliers paused exports.

📞 Get Ahead of the Next Shortage

If you rely on specialty chemicals for electronics, defense, battery, or advanced manufacturing – you can’t afford to wait.

At Surplus International, we help you secure critical inputs before the market panics.

📩 Reach out today via surplus-inter.com or email info@surplus-inter.com
Let’s find the surplus that will save your supply chain.

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